The conference semi-finals are already off on Saturday night with Game 1 of a Western Conference showdown between the Denver Nuggets and Minnesota Timberwolves. Two other matchups are already set. The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks are also still alive in the West, while the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers are set for an Eastern Conference battle. Let’s break down those three conference semi-final series.
Changing of the guard in the Western Conference?
Is it Anthony Edwards’ world, and everyone else is just living in it? That seems to be the narrative heading into round two of the playoffs, with the former No. 1 overall pick of the Timberwolves soaring into stardom while some of the biggest names in the league like LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard are already on vacation.
Of course, the Nuggets may have something to say about Edwards being the top dog in these playoffs. After all, the league belonged to the Nuggets last year and they are the betting favorites to make it back to the NBA Finals (the Boston Celtics are favored to win it all). Head coach Mike Malone’s team compiled a 57-25 record during the regular season and produced a gentlemen’s sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers in round one. Nikola Jokic is a borderline lock to earn NBA MVP honors for the third time in his career.
Still, the first round wasn’t easy even though Denver dropped just one game to Los Angeles after leading 3-0. The Nuggets never won by more than 11 points and three of their victories were by singles-digits, including two by just two points. One of those thrillers (Game 2) ended on a Jamal Murray buzzer-beater that capped off a Denver comeback from 20 points down.
Minnesota, on the other hand, endured no such issues despite getting a seemingly difficult first-round draw against the stacked Phoenix Suns. However, Durant and company proved to be no match for the Timberwolves – who rolled to a sweep and won games by 25, 12, 17 and six points.
It’s also worth noting that the head-to-head series during the regular series was tied up at 2-2. The Timberwolves outscored the Nuggets by 22 points in those four contests. All of those things considered, Minnesota +1.5 games at -128 is the best bet to make in this series. That play cashes if the Timberwolves win outright or push the Nuggets to seven games.
MINNESOTA +1.5 GAMES
Luka, Kyrie hope to delay OKC youth movement
As good as Denver and Minnesota are, neither team was able to finish ahead of Oklahoma City in the Western Conference standings. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren led the Thunder to a 57-25 record, giving them the No. 1 seed due to a tiebreaker over the Nuggets while being one game clear of the Timberwolves. SGA and company carried that form into round one of the playoffs, sweeping the New Orleans Pelicans in four straight games – two of which were decided by more than 20 points.
OKC’s roster makeover has been building for many years. This team remains young, but it has arrived. Gilgeous-Alexander has established himself as one of the association’s best players, Chet Holmgren will almost certainly finish second to Victor Wembanyama in Rookie of the Year voting, Jalen Williams averaged 19.1 ppg during the regular season and a nice supporting cast features Josh Giddey, Luguentz Dort and Isaiah Joe.
Dallas is more of a veteran team, led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. That duo was good enough to dispose of the Los Angeles Clippers without too much trouble in a six-game series, but keep in mind that Kawhi Leonard missed four of the games with a knee injury. The Mavericks have two great players, but their depth pales in comparison to the Thunder’s and that could be a factor in a long, intense playoff series.
Getting the top-seeded Thunder at close to even money (-115) to take care of business in the overall series is a great value play.
THUNDER TO WIN SERIES
Knicks, Pacers revive one of NBA’s best rivalries
The star power in this series is not exactly off the charts – especially not when you consider that this could have been Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard versus Embiid and Tyrese Maxey. But that doesn’t mean a Knicks-Pacers showdown lacks intrigue. It is one of the most historic rivalries in the NBA dating back to 1993. In the span of eight seasons from 1992-93 to 1999-2000, these two franchises squared off a whopping six times in the playoffs. They split those series at three victories apiece, each winning in seven games on one occasion. Only once since 2000 have the Knicks and Pacers met in the playoffs, with Indiana prevailing 4-2 in the 2023 conference semi-finals.
Their second playoff matchup in the last 24 seasons should be a fun one. The Knicks have New York City buzzing after defeating the Philadelphia 76ers in six games. On paper the Pacers faced an even tougher opponent in round one, but the Milwaukee Bucks were nowhere near full strength. Antetokounmpo missed the entire series due to a calf issue and Lillard was sidelined from Games 4 and 5 because of an Achilles’ injury. Indiana took advantage by prevailing in six games.
Jalen Brunson has emerged as a star, which is the main reason why the Knicks are considerable favorites in this series. That being said, Julius Randle is out for the season and the Pacers are a formidable opponent. Tyrese Haliburton was a breakout performer in the regular season (20.1 ppg, 10. 9 apg) and Indy got him some help prior to the trade deadline by acquiring Pascal Siakam.
Both of these teams are very good, but neither one looks like a real title contender. This has all the makings of a competitive series – worthy of the Knicks-Pacers rivalry. It should go at least six, so Over 5.5 at -155 on the total games line looks like a great play.
OVER 5.5 GAMES
