The time has finally come for the NBA Finals. Only two teams are left after a grueling 82-game season and several rounds of playoff excitement.
The Dallas Mavericks are the Western Conference Champions after beating the Los Angeles Clippers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Minnesota Timberwolves in the first three rounds. In the Eastern Conference, the Boston Celtics were the best team in the regular season, and it continued into the playoffs as they defeated the Miami Heat, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Indiana Pacers.
It’s shaping up to be an exciting NBA Finals with plenty of underlying drama, so let’s dive into this series.
NBA Finals Odds
Boston has been the team to beat all season. Between their star-studded starting lineup, extremely deep bench, and phenomenal coaching, the Celtics might have one of the best teams since their 2008 Championship. It was no surprise to see the Celtics listed as a heavy favorite for this series once the odds were released.
Don’t count Dallas out just yet because the Mavericks know a thing or two about winning as the underdog. After upsetting the superstar-filled Clippers, the Mavericks took down the #1 seed in the West before eliminating the odds-on favorite to win the Western Conference. The Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving duo has kept the Mavs alive for this long, but is it enough to get past the Celtics?
- Boston Celtics (-225)
- Dallas Mavericks (+188)
NBA Finals Game 1 Odds
Several sportsbooks released odds for Game 1 of the NBA Finals at halftime of Game 5 between the Mavericks and Timberwolves. The Celtics opened at 5.5-point favorites, but a large amount of public bets on Boston pushed the spread up to 6.5 points. There might be more line movement in the next few days, but it likely won’t move more than a bucket.
An important factor in Game 1 will be the health of Kristaps Porzingis. Boston’s big man has been out since Game 4 of the first round with a calf strain. That means Porzingis hasn’t taken the court with the rest of the Celtics starting five since April 29. In the meantime, Al Horford and Luke Kornet have had to take on much larger roles, but exploiting Boston’s paint defense was something the Cavaliers and Pacers tried to do every game. If Porzingis comes back in Game 1 like he’s expected to, Boston’s one weakness might be fixed.
- Dallas Mavericks +6.5 (-110)
- Boston Celtics -6.5 (-110)
NBA Finals MVP Odds
The Bill Russell NBA Finals MVP trophy typically goes to the player who made the most significant impact on the winning team. The only time a player on the losing team won the NBA Finals MVP was in 1969 to Jerry West when the Los Angeles Lakers lost to the Boston Celtics in seven games. Since then, the award has gone to a player on the winning team.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to see Jayson Tatum as the favorite to win the award since the Celtics are heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals, and Tatum is the leader. Jaylen Brown, the Eastern Conference Finals MVP, is also a contender for the award. As for the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is the heavy favorite to win the award among his teammates. Doncic won the Western Conference Finals MVP, and if the Mavericks want to beat the Celtics, it will be up to Doncic to lead the team to victory.
- Jayson Tatum (-120)
- Luka Doncic (+210)
- Jaylen Brown (+600)
- Kyrie Irving (+2100)
- Derrick White (+3500)
- Kristaps Porzingis (+5000)
- Jrue Holiday (+5500)
Boston Celtics Strengths
The Celtics can beat teams in several different ways. The Celtics led the league in 3-pointers attempted per game and 3-point percentage in the regular season. The primary reason for that is all five of their players in the starting lineup are fantastic from deep. Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis are above-average shooters from the perimeter, making defending them very difficult since they space the floor so well. And coming off the bench, Al Horford, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser are all knockdown shooters. Boston is always a threat from deep, no matter who’s on the floor.
In addition to their historically good offense, the Celtics also boast an extremely good defense. Boston ranked 2nd in the league in defensive rating in the regular season, and the success can be attributed to several different players. Holiday and White were both named to the All-Defensive 2nd Team, and Porzingis has been a fabulous rim protector.
Dallas Mavericks Strengths
Offense, offense, and more offense. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are fantastic isolation players and play great off the ball. In the regular season, Doncic averaged 33.9 points along with 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game. The face of the franchise did a little bit of everything to help the Mavs since the offense runs through him.
Dallas has also been fantastic from deep in the playoffs. The Mavericks hold a better 3-point percentage than the Celtics in the playoffs. Irving and Doncic have been the primary reason for that, but Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington have also been productive from downtown. The Mavericks are at their best when Doncic and Irving are shooting well from the perimeter, and the rest of the lineup is getting to the free-throw line.
NBA Finals Best Bet
The Boston Celtics were the best team in the regular season, and they’ve been the best team in the playoffs. With Porzingis expected to rejoin the starting lineup for this series, the Celtics will be completely healthy and on plenty of rest. Plus, the first two games of the series are in Boston, so the Celtics have plenty of advantages in this series.
The key to beating the Mavericks is doubling Doncic on the perimeter and sticking with Irving in the midrange. The Clippers, Thunder, and Timberwolves were unable to limit Doncic, but the Celtics have Holiday and White to make Doncic’s night difficult.
Boston is a heavy favorite, so if you’re not interested in laying the juice of -225, I’d highly recommend taking the series spread bet of Celtics -1.5 games (+108) because I’m expecting the Celtics to win in five games.
