The UFC heads to Las Vegas for the UFC 306 pay-per-view event taking place for the first MMA event at the famous Sphere. The "Noche UFC" edition card is celebrating Mexican independence day and features a bantamweight title headliner as current champion Sean O’Malley looks for his second title defense against the red-hot Merab Dvalishvili. The co-main event, meanwhile, is a women’s flyweight title fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko.
The unique event only has 10 fights planned. Let’s take a closer look at all the action.
UFC 306 Prelim Card
The prelims open up with rising prospect Raul Rosas Jr. taking on Qileng Aori in a bantamweight affair. The Mexican fighter made history when he earned his UFC contract at the age of 18 with a win Dana White’s Contender Series in late 2022. With only one loss, he is rolling in the UFC and should be another win for Rosas who is a massive favorite.
Edgar Chairez battles Joshua Van in a flyweight contest. Van has been insanely active with 18 fights in 46 months, including stepping up on a week notice here. Van should emerge victorious in this matchup.
Women's strawweights are also in action with Yazin Jauregui colliding with Ketlen Souza. Jauregui only has one defeat and it looks like it will stay that way.
Manuel Torres takes on Ignacio Bahamondes in a lightweight tilt. It's a close contest, but Torres who goes by “El Loco” is just about favored by the oddsmakers in what the fighters see as a potential Fight of the Night.
Women's bantamweights are also colliding as former title challenger Irene Aldana battles Norma Dumont in the featured prelim. This is essentially a pick ‘em and can go either way -- Aldana is the veteran bantamweight while Dumont is moving down from featherweight, but one would give slightest of edges to the Mexican favorite Aldana.
UFC 306 Main Card
Rodriguez (16-2) vs Osbourne (12-7, 1NC)
The main card kicks off with a flyweight encounter between Ronaldo Rodriguez and Ode’ Osbourne. Rodriguez only recently made his UFC debut with a submission win over Denys Bondar in February earlier this year. Overall, he has won his last six fights and is in a big spot opening up the main card.
Osbourne, meanwhile, is on a two-fight losing streak after submission defeats to Asu Almabayev and Jafel Filho. Overall, he has lost three of his last four. Despite this losing run, Osbourne is only a slight underdog with Rodriguez just about favored to get the victory. Anything can happen, especially as this is only Rodriguez’s second UFC fight ever, but he still remains a safe bet.
Zellhuber (15-1) vs Ribovics (13-1)
Next on the card is a lightweight collision between Daniel Zellhuber and Esteban Ribovics. Zellhuber is on a three-fight winning streak including victories over Lando Vannata, Christos Giagos and Francisco Prado. Overall, he is 3-1 in the UFC with the only loss of his career coming to Trey Ogden back in September 2022 during his UFC debut.
Ribovics, on the other hand, is coming off a massive head kick knockout victory over Terrance McKinney in May. He is on a two-fight winning streak and like Zellhuber, and only has one defeat in his professional career which came on his UFC debut against Loik Radzhabov back in March 2023.
All that said, Zellhuber remains a solid betting favorite and should come out on top in this 155-pound matchup.
Ortega (16-3, 1NC) vs Lopes (25-6)
Arguably one of the most highly-anticipated matchup on the card is a featherweight encounter between former title challenger Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes. Ortega and Lopes were originally supposed to fight at UFC 303 in June only for the former to pull out on the day of the fight.
“T-City” is coming off an impressive submission win over Yair Rodriguez in their rematch in February earlier this year. Prior to that, he was on a two-fight losing streak, but first of those was a decision defeat to Alexander Volkanovski and the second was an injury suffered by him in his first fight with Rodriguez. An impressive win over Lopes could put Ortega in position for a third title shot, especially with Ilia Topuria now reigning as the champion.
The same can be said for Lopes who has enjoyed a meteoric rise in the UFC since debuting on a short notice defeat against Movsar Evolev last year. Although he lost on the scorecards, he was entertaining and extremely offensive with his submission attempts and even had the undefeated Evloev in trouble at times. Since then, Lopes has embarked on a four-fight winning streak including wins over Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodiq Yusuff and Dan Ige with finishes in three of those fights.
It could be five as Lopes is the betting favorite going into the fight with his overall activity likely playing a role. Given both fighters love to be offensive when it comes to submissions, we may end up seeing a striking battle in which Lopes should have the edge standing, and Ortega on the ground. I like the underdog Ortega to pull off the upset win in this Mexican versus Mexican showdown.
Grasso (16-3-1) vs Shevchenko (23-4-1)
The co-main event and first of two title fights sees Alexa Grasso defend her women’s flyweight title against Valentina Shevchenko in a rare women’s trilogy. Grasso won the title after submitting Shevchenko in a shocking upset in March 2023. The rematch took place nearly a year ago in September and was a competitive affair -- in which Shevchenko was notably knocked down by Grasso -- that eventually ended up being scored a draw. Now a year later, the duo will finally settle the score in a trilogy.
Overall, Grasso is unbeaten in her last six outings and in addition to her win over Shevchenko, she has beaten the likes of Viviane Araujo, Joanne Wood and Maycee Barber. Shevchenko, meanwhile, has won every fight at flyweight other than her two meetings with Grasso. Prior to that defeat, she has won her last nine 125-pound fights with victories over the likes of Taila Santos, Jessica Andrade, Jennifer Maia, Katlyn Chookagian and more.
That said, she may have met her match in Grasso that seems to be gaining in skills and energy over the veteran. The Mexican fighter is slight favorite to emerge victorious and come out on top in the trilogy, and I think she will do it once again.
O’Malley (18-1, 1NC) vs Dvalishvili (17-4)
The main event sees Sean O’Malley defend his bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley recently defended his title for the first time after a dominant unanimous decision victory over Marlon Vera in their rematch. Overall, "Suga" is undefeated in his last 7 fights in a run that includes notable wins over former champions Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan.
Dvalishvili, meanwhile, hasn't suffered defeat since April 2018 as he is currently on a 10-fight winning streak. His most recent victory was a unanimous decision win over former double champion Henry Cejudo, but he also holds other big wins over the likes of Yan, Jose Aldo and Marlon Moraes.
Given his relentless wrestling, cardio and volume-based style, Dvalishvili could give O’Malley a long night similar to what Yan experienced. However, as Sterling found out, getting close to O’Malley for the takedown comes with a lot of risks thanks to his polished and precise striking.
It’s a close and competitive matchup, but oddsmakers seem to be giving the edge to O’Malley and his striking and ability to finish the fight with one punch. I like Suga to win by decision, and able to get at least 3 rounds on the judges scorecard and retain his belt in the Sphere.
