Gone are the days when pretty much nobody outside of the “Big 3” (Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer) had a realistic chance of winning any Grand Slam tournament. Djokovic is the only one of the three still on tour and he has been surpassed in the rankings by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz and others. The 37-year-old Serb remains a major title contender (especially at the Australian Open, which he has won 10 times), but he isn’t the favorite. That distinction belongs to Sinner, the world No. 1 and defending champion. Let's take a look at the best bets to make on the men’s side at the Australian Open before play gets underway on Sunday.
- JANNIK SINNER
- NOVAK DJOKOVIC
- ALEXANDER ZVEREV
- DANIIL MEDVEDEV
- TOMMY PAUL
Favorable Draw For Sinner
What’s not to like about Sinner’s chances at the Australian Open? As the rankings indicate, he is by far the best player in the world right now. The 22-year-old’s 2024 heroics not only included a title in Melbourne but also his second Grand Slam triumph at the US Open followed by a victory at the Nitto ATP Finals (the year-end championship for the top eight players in the world).
As if all of that isn’t enough, Sinner also has a great draw in Melbourne. Alcaraz, Djokovic and Alexander Zverev are all in the bottom half of the bracket. Sinner’s path to the title could feature Alex de Minaur (against whom the Italian is 9-0 all time) in the quarterfinals and either Taylor Fritz or Daniil Medvedev in the semis.
Fritz and Medvedev are the two players Sinner beat in the finals of his Grand Slam victories last season. All signs point to a successful title defense for the world No. 1.
JANNIK SINNER
Djokovic Still Good Enough
Count out Djokovic at your own peril. It is true that the 37-year-old is no longer the dominant force on tour that he used to be, but he is absolutely still in the mix for the biggest titles. Although Djokovic did not win any Grand Slams in 2024, he did accomplish his biggest goal – capturing Olympic gold in men’s singles for the first time in his illustrious career. Moreover, nowhere is the Serb better than he is Down Under.
He is the all-time leader in Australian Open titles with 10, including four in the last six seasons. Djokovic is 94-9 lifetime at the tournament and has lost prior to the quarterfinals only twice since 2007. Physical problems have cropped up at times in the latter stages of his career, but this is the very start of a new season so he is well rested and armed with a clean bill of health. Don’t be shocked if Djokovic adds No. 25 to his slam haul.
NOVAK DJOKOVIC
Slam Pressure Mounting For Zverev
Nobody has more pressure on him than Zverev going into 2025, at least when it comes to Grand Slams. The world No. 2 is without question the best active player on the men’s side to have never won a major.
At 27 years old, Zverev still has time – but at the same time he isn’t getting any younger and guys like Sinner and Alcaraz are getting better and better. The German has certainly come close. He led Dominic Thiem two sets to love in the 2020 US Open final and led Alcaraz two sets to one in the 2024 French Open final.
Zverev is a two-time Australian Open semifinalist (including 12 months ago), so he should be feeling good about his chances in Melbourne.
ALEXANDER ZVEREV
Medvedev Poised To Reemerge
Considering the relative dominance of Sinner, Djokovic and Alcaraz, Medvedev has flown under the radar over the last 12 months or so. It’s time for him to emerge back on the scene, and the Aussie Open is exactly the place for him to do it. Medvedev is a self-proclaimed hard-court specialist, and who can argue with that assessment?
He has reached six Grand Slam finals – three each at the two hard-court majors (the Australian Open and US Open). The Russian finished runner-up Down Under in 2021, 2022 and 2024, losing to Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Sinner, respectively. Medvedev could finally get over the hump when many least expect it. The 28-year-old failed to win a single title last season, so he isn’t being talked about at all.
It’s also why you can find his price all the way up to +1500 at some sportsbooks; that’s an unheard-of number for Medvedev (outside of the French Open, where he is a longshot because of his disdain for clay) since his rise up the rankings began in 2019. Despite his relative struggles in 2024, it’s not like he played poorly. Medvedev finished the year ranked No. 5 in the world, so to say that he is still relevant would be an understatement. There is no reason why he can’t triumph at one of his favorite events.
DANIIL MEDVEDEV
Paul Has Longshot Potential
Although surprising champions have not been the norm Down Under, this tournament generally produces plenty of unexpected results. Relative longshots advancing at least to the semifinals if not even to the final is nothing out of the ordinary.
The Australian Open marks the unofficial start of every tennis season and players can be rusty and somewhat out of form. That opens the door for outsiders. If you are in the business of a longshot selection this year, Paul could be your man. He is a former Aussie Open semifinalist (2023), so he has to be particularly confident at this event. The 27-year-old American was outstanding in 2024, climbing to No. 12 in the rankings.
He is off to a strong start this season, too, currently finding himself in the Adelaide semifinals. It’s also worth noting that Paul has a favorable draw at Melbourne Park in Taylor Fritz’s section. He would not have to face Sinner until the semis and either Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Zverev until the final.
TOMMY PAUL
