The first of two consecutive 1000-point tournaments will take place this coming fortnight at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Palm Springs, California. It’s the BNP Paribas Open, and it’s among the second-biggest events on the annual calendar, trailing only the four Grand Slams – in which 2000 ranking points are awarded to the champion. Of the 1000-pointers, Indian Wells and Miami (which make up the prestigious “Sunshine Double”) are the most prestigious. In fact, the former is often hailed as “the fifth slam.” These are very important tournaments in terms of both prize-money and players’ rankings.
With Jannik Sinner serving a three-month suspension for a positive doping test, Alexander Zverev is the No. 1 seed in the men’s draw. Carlos Alcaraz, the two-time defending champion – is No. 2. On the women’s side, top seed Aryna Sabalenka is looking to win this tournament for the first time after finishing runner-up in 2023. Iga Swiatek, the No. 2 seed, is the defending champion and a two-time winner in the desert. Let's take a look at the best bets to be made for the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.
Outright Men’s Singles Winner Tips
- CARLOS ALCARAZ
- TOMMY PAUL
- FELIX AUGER-ALIASSIME
Outright women’s singles winner tips
- IGA SWIATEK
- ELENA RYBAKINA
- EMMA NAVARRO
Alcaraz Arrives As Two-Time Defending Champion
There is a lot to like about Alcaraz’s chances in Indian Wells. That pretty much goes without saying, as the 21-year-old is the betting favorite since Sinner is on the sideline. Alcaraz is the two-time defending champion in the desert and his February swing featured a 500-point title on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam.
Being in the same quarter of the bracket as Novak Djokovic may not be ideal, but Djokovic has not won a match since retiring from his Australian Open semifinal against Zverev because of a hamstring injury. Alcaraz’s draw is otherwise favorable, as potential fourth-round opponents Grigor Dimitrov and Sebastian Korda are both struggling.
Paul Eager To Regain Top-10 Status
If you are looking for a longshot play, Tommy Paul is among the ideal choices. The 11th-ranked American, who briefly peaked in the top 10 last month (No. 9), was awesome throughout the 2024 campaign and he kicked off this season with a semifinal showing in Adelaide and a quarterfinal run at the Austrailian Open. Paul had to withdraw from last week’s event in Acapulco after winning his first match due to a stomach bug that felled several other participants, but at least that means he will be well-rested for Indian Wells.
The 27-year-old has advanced to at least the third round in his last four trips to the desert, including the fourth round twice and a semifinal result last spring. More good news for Paul is that he finds himself in the softest quarter of the bracket in which the top two seeds are Casper Ruud and Daniil Medvedev.
Felix Flying High Following Hot First Two Months Of Season
Few players were hotter throughout January and February than Felix Auger-Aliassime. In fact, he is the current leader in match wins on the ATP Tour this season – boasting a 16-5 record. That includes titles in Adelaide and Montpellier plus a runner-up effort last week in Dubai.
Although Indian Wells has by no means been Auger-Aliassime's best Masters 1000 event over the years, he at least managed to reach the quarterfinals in 2023. Like Paul, the 18th-ranked Canadian’s draw is conducive to a deep run. The top two seeds in his section are Taylor Fritz (currently dealing with an abdominal injury) and an inconsistent Andrey Rublev.
Indian Wells Should Be Just What The Doctor Ordered For Swiatek
Swiatek failed to reach the final in her first three tournaments of the 2025 campaign, but she isn’t playing poor tennis by any means. All three opponents who defeated her either went on to take the title or finish runner-up.
It’s time for Swiatek to get over the hump this season, and there is no better place for her to do it than in Indian Wells. The second-ranked Pole has lifted the trophy twice in the last three years and has not lost prior to the semifinals since 2021. How dominant was Swiatek en route to the trophy last spring? Well, she did not drop a single set in the entire tournament and no set was more competitive than 6-4.
Second Indian Wells Title Could Be In The Cards For Rybakina
Elena Rybakina was the woman responsible for Swiatek falling short in 2023. The Kazakh clobbered Swiatek 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinals and then beat Sabalenka for the title. Rybakina dropped only one set the entire fortnight on the way to her Indian Wells triumph. The current world No. 7 was unable to play this event last season due to illness, so she should be especially eager to restore glory in the desert.
Current form suggests that Rybakina should be in store for more success at the BNP Paribas Open. The 25-year-old has reached at least the quarterfinals in her last three events and three of the four players who have defeated her in 2025 went on to win that respective tournament. The only exception was Swiatek, who got the better of Rybakina in the Doha quarters. It takes a lot to beat Rybakina right now – and there is a decent chance that nobody does in Indian Wells.
Navarro Rolling On The Heels Of Merida Triumph
Emma Navarro has been wildly up and down in the early stages of 2025, but she is most definitely trending in the right direction as she makes her way to Tennis Paradise. The eighth-ranked American is coming off a 500-point title in Merida, Mexico, where she did not lose a set all week long. No set was closer than 6-4 and only one set was more competitive than 6-3. Navarro destroyed Emiliana Arango 6-0, 6-0 in the final this past weekend.
The 23-year-old made a run to the Indian Wells quarterfinals in 2024 and she is a considerably better player 12 months later. Her draw is relatively favorable, too. Navarro would not meet Sabalenka until the semis and Swiatek or Rybakina until the final.
