Two months have been completed in the Major League Baseball season, and some teams are still trying to find their groove. One team that has drastically underperformed so far is the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are currently 23-29 and find themselves in last place in the division. Although there is still plenty of time left, what are Toronto’s chances of making the postseason? Let’s find out!
A Slow Start at the Plate Up North
A lack of talent is not a problem for the Toronto Blue Jays. Between a few young superstars in their lineup and a couple of aces in their starting rotation, the Blue Jays had high expectations in 2024. However, the first two months of the season have not gone to plan. One major problem with the team has been in their lineup, which was supposed to be a strength of the team. After their first 52 games, the Blue Jays offense ranks 20th in batting average, 13th in on-base percentage, and 16th in wRC+.
The cornerstones of the Blue Jays are Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, but neither star started the season well. In April, Guerrero Jr. and Bichette both hit a measly .219. An even bigger problem was that their leadoff hitter wasn’t getting on base. George Springer is hitting just .188 with a .264 on-base percentage this season, so he’s been moved down in the lineup in the last week or two.
Major Issues on the Mound
The Blue Jays rotation has plenty of veteran talent. Kevin Gausman is the ace of the staff, and he’s followed by Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Jose Berrios. The problem is that none of the four starters are pitching all that well. For their ace, Gausman has a 4.47 ERA and his lowest strikeout rate since 2018. His rough start to the season is extremely concerning, especially since he dealt with shoulder pain earlier in the year. If he can’t turn it around, the rotation is in trouble.
Yusei Kikuchi
Toronto also has a wild card in their rotation: Alek Manoah. After an incredible 2022 campaign which led to him being the Opening Day starter in 2023, Manoah has never been the same. His decline last season was one for the ages, as he was sent all the way down to rookie ball at one point. Not many people knew what to expect from Manoah in 2024 since it was up and in the air where he would start the year. So far, he’s bounced between Triple-A and the Majors, but he hasn’t found much success at either level. It appears his phenomenal 2022 season was more of an outlier than the norm.
Can the Blue Jays Still Make the Postseason?
It’s certainly still possible for Toronto to earn a spot in the postseason. The baseball season is long and grueling which means there are plenty of opportunities for the Blue Jays to get hot and be playing baseball in October. With that said, the best chance the Blue Jays have of making it to the postseason is through the Wild Card spot. The Yankees and Orioles are in a dogfight for the division title and it’s unlikely for Toronto to overtake either team. According to Fangraphs, the Blue Jays have a 0.6% chance to win the AL East.
There are three Wild Card spots available in the American and National League. Besides the divisional winners which get an automatic bid to the postseason, the next three best teams by record that didn’t win the division will also make the postseason. As of now, the Blue Jays have a 14% chance to get a Wild Card spot, according to Fangraphs. The Blue Jays need to put their disappointing April and May behind them and focus on the next few months if they want a chance at postseason baseball.
