The Wimbledon women’s singles final is a matchup that nobody could have predicted heading into the tournament. Both Jasmine Paolini and Barbora Krejcikova have played in a Grand Slam final before, but neither player was among the favorites to contend for glory in London this summer. Nonetheless, this is the scenario that an upset-filled fortnight has produced.
Let's take a look at the best bets to be made for Saturday’s Wimbledon Women’s Singles Final
- Jasmine Paolini ML
- Over 22.5 games
- Over 0.5 tiebreakers
Paolini in second consecutive Grand Slam final
This is quite simply the summer of Jasmine Paolini. In early June she made a run to the French Open championship match, stopped only by world No. 1 Iga Swiatek. Now in early July, the 28-year-old is through to a second straight major final. Her run at the All-England Club includes straight-set victories over Bianca Andreescu and Emma Navarro, an amazing fourth-round match against Madison Keys (the American was ultimately forced to retire with a hamstring injury at 5-5 in the third set) and an epic 2-6, 6-4, 7-6(10-8) semifinal defeat of grass-court guru Donna Vekic.
In reality, this entire year has been the year of Jasmine Paolini. The Italian has now reached a major title match on two different surfaces (clay and grass) and won a WTA 1000-point tournament (Dubai) on hard courts. She is doing it all. Although Paolini was a grass-court novice prior to 2024, keep in mind that Krejcikova has won just 19 total professional matches on the green stuff (only five more than her opponent) compared to 230 on clay. It’s not like the veteran Czech – who triumphed at Roland Garros in 2021 – is some kind of grass-court wizard. Paolini as a small underdog (+125) is a strong value play.
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Unexpected matchup has the makings of a blockbuster
It’s hard to see either woman powering her way to the trophy with ease. Both are playing great, but neither one is anything close to dominant. Paolini has survived a pair of marathons so far at Wimbledon and two other matches required a tiebreaker. Krejcikova has been pushed to three sets twice and on two other occasions prevailed in second-set tiebreakers. Amidst the pressure of a Grand Slam title on the line, whoever is in the lead may have a difficult time closing it out. At the same time, each player has the experience of having participated in a slam final and won’t go away without a fight. Over 22.5 games looks like a good bet.
Both players know a thing or two about tiebreakers
Everyone loves a tiebreaker – especially in Grand Slam final. The drama, the intensity...it’s what a match of this magnitude deserves. Nobody should be surprised if at least one ‘breaker takes place, to the extent that over 0.5 tiebreakers played has outstanding value at +200. Paolini has played a tiebreaker in four of her last five contests. Krejcikova has played five tiebreakers even though only two of her matches have gone to three sets. It’s also worth noting that the nature of grass-court tennis is such that holding serve is easier than it is on clay and hard courts – thus more frequently yielding sets that go to 6-6.
