We have reached the final week of the tennis season (not including the Davis Cup Finals, which are later in November). The top eight men have punched their tickets to the Nitto ATP Finals, where they will battle for one of the most lucrative titles – in terms of both ranking points and prize money. Taking their talents to Turin, Italy are Jannik Sinner, Alexander Zverev, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Taylor Fritz, Casper Ruud, Andrey Rublev and Alex de Minaur. Novak Djokovic qualified in the No. 6 spot but recently withdrew, citing an injury.
The eight players are divided into two round-robin groups, with the top two finishers in each one advancing to the semifinals next weekend. Sinner’s group includes Medvedev, Fritz and De Minaur, while Zverev headlines a quartet along with Alcaraz, Ruud and Rublev.
Let's take a look at the best bets to be made for the Nitto ATP Finals.
Outright Winner Tips
JANNIK SINNER
ALEXANDER ZVEREV
ANDREY RUBLEV
Group Winner Tips
ALEX DE MINAUR
ALEXANDER ZVEREV
Sinner Can Cement Status As Year-End No. 1
Sinner has already clinched the year-end No. 1 ranking on the ATP Tour. He would like nothing more than to cap off his incredible season with his first Nitto ATP Finals title. The Italian came within one win of triumphing at this tournament in 2023, ultimately falling to Djokovic in the final. He is favored to get the job done this time around – and why not? Sinner boasts a 65-6 match record for the year, highlighted by the first two Grand Slam titles of his career at the Australian Open and U.S. Open. The fact that he won each of the two hard-court slams in 2024 bodes well for his chances heading to the indoor hard courts of Turin.
Sinner was awesome in front of the home fans 12 months ago. He beat Djokovic, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Holger Rune in the group stage and ousted Medvedev in the semis prior to his setback against Djokovic in the championship match. Although the 23-year-old does not have amazing value as a +125 favorite, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him on this stage.
Zverev Armed With Momentum Following Paris Triumph
There is a lot to like about Zverev going into the year-end championship. He is coming off a title at the Paris Masters, which was played on a very fast indoor hard court. The conditions inside Inalpi Arena in Turin are expected to be similar. Zverev lost only one set the whole week in Paris, and that was to an in-form Arthur Fils who was playing in front of a raucous home crowd. The 27-year-old proceeded to erase Tsitsipas, Rune and Ugo Humbert all in straight sets. By virtue of that result, Zverev passed Alcaraz for the No. 2 spot in the rankings and therefore the No. 2 seed in Turin. That ensured he would be in a different group from Sinner, which is obviously good news.
It should also be noted that Zverev’s Nitto ATP Finals history is extremely encouraging. He has already lifted this trophy twice, prevailing in 2018 and 2021. In six trips to the year-end championship, Zverev has compiled a losing record in round-robin competition only twice. As a +650 third choice (well behind Sinner and Alcaraz), there is plenty of value on the red-hot German.
Rublev Worth A Look As A Longshot
Rublev could be an all-or-nothing kind of player in Turin. When you are backing a longshot on the futures market, that’s the kind of player you want. Admittedly, there is a real chance that Rublev could flame out right away by losing all three of his round-robin matches. At the same time, winning the tournament would not be the craziest thing in the world.
The Russian reached the final at two Masters 1000 events in 2024, capturing the title on the red clay in Madrid before finishing runner-up on the hard courts of Montreal. Other positive results are few and far between, but there is no reason why Rublev can’t suddenly recapture that magic. Given that Rublev is +2000 to lift the trophy, he is well worth a sprinkle.
Debutant De Minaur Can Make Immediate Statement
De Minaur is playing in this prestigious year-end championship for the first time in his career. Even though he technically needed Djokovic’s withdrawal to qualify in the eighth and final spot, De Minaur’s appearance is well deserved. If not for a hip injury suffered at Wimbledon, the Aussie would have qualified on his own merit with relative ease. The 25-year-old is sporting a 47-16 record this year that features three Grand Slam quarterfinal appearances. He came within a set of also going that far at the Australian Open but lost to Rublev in five sets.
De Minaur probably can’t beat Sinner (0-7 lifetime), but Medvedev and Fritz are big hitters who could take down the world No. 1 on any given day. Meanwhile, De Minaur’s defense and consistency could frustrate both Medvedev and Fritz. If some other results break the right way, De Minaur could ultimately shock the other members of the Ilie Nastase Group even if he loses his opening match to Sinner.
Zverev Should Be Favored In His Group
Zverev finds himself in a favorable round-robin situation. Alcaraz was on fire this summer, winning the French Open and Wimbledon, but has cooled off this fall. The Spaniard has never been at his best indoors and is just 2-2 lifetime at the year-end championship. Rublev is dangerous but has not been playing particularly well of late. Ruud is in horrible form at the moment and for the most part is not a serious factor on any surface other than clay. The Norwegian is a hopeless 2-9 in his last 11 matches dating back to the U.S. Open.
Alcaraz is obviously the biggest name in the John Newcombe Group, but Zverev – at least right now – is the best player.
