Super Bowl LIX this weekend in New Orleans features the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. The Chiefs have a historic three-peat in their sights, while the Eagles are bidding for their second Lombardi Trophy in the span of eight years. It may not be the matchup that most of America wanted, but these are two of the best teams in the NFL without question. The game should be a great one.
Kansas City punched yet another ticket to the Super Bowl by beating the Buffalo Bills 32-29 in the AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes improved to 4-0 all-time against Josh Allen in the playoffs by leading the Chiefs to yet another thrilling win in that burgeoning rivalry. Mahomes threw for 245 yards, rushed for 43 and accounted for three total touchdowns. In the NFC Championship, Philadelphia had a much easier time with the Washington Commanders. The Eagles won the turnover battle 4-0 while rolling to a 55-23 victory. Saquon Barkley ran for 118 yards and three touchdowns, and Philly as a team scored a ridiculous seven TDs on the ground.
With the Super Bowl kicking off on Sunday at 6:30 pm ET and televised by FOX, it’s time to break down the matchup and discuss the best bets to make.
- CHIEFS -1.5 (-110)
- OVER 49.5 (-110)
- PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 5.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS (-145)
- XAVIER WORTHY ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (+155)
- JALEN HURTS ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN SCORER (-105)
PICK #1: Chiefs -1.5 (-110)
It’s difficult – if not impossible – to justify betting against Mahomes in any close game. After all, the Chiefs have won a hard-to-believe 17 consecutive one-possession games. Moreover, Mahomes is already a three-time Super Bowl winner and three-time Super Bowl MVP. The 29-year-old has a history of willing his team to victory in the most competitive games and on the biggest stages.
Philadelphia is a very good team, but is it good enough to win by multiple scores on Sunday? That’s unlikely. And if it does turn out to be a close game, it’s hard to like the Eagles’ chances. They lost to the Chiefs 38-35 in Super Bowl LVII, victims of another instance of Mahomes’ clutch gene. Even with Barkley on the field this time, Philadelphia will be hard-pressed to put up as many points against an improved Kansas City defense that is playing at a high level under veteran coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
When Mahomes has that kind of support on the other side of the ball, it is an ideal recipe for success.
PICK #2: Over 49.5 (-110)
Super Bowl LVII between these two teams saw 73 points put on the scoreboard. We may not get that much in the rematch, but asking them to post at least 50 seems reasonable. On one side, of course, you have Mahomes. He leads a Kansas City offense that was No. 3 in the NFL during the regular season in third-down conversions (48.2%).
On the other side, you have Barkley, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in five straight games and nine of the last 10, including a 255-yard performance against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 12. The Chiefs gave up 147 rushing yards to the Bills in the AFC title game, so it’s unlikely that Spagnuolo manages to keep Barkley entirely under wraps. Expect offensive fireworks.
PICK #3: Patrick Mahomes Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-145)
Mahomes often takes matters into his own hands when it matters most. We have seen it time and time again in the playoffs with him, Allen, Hurts and many other mobile quarterbacks. They are eager to tuck it and run when the stakes are highest rather than force any errant throws. Designed QB runs are nothing out of the ordinary, too.
Mahomes carried it 11 times for 43 yards and two touchdowns in the recent AFC Championship win over Buffalo. He also had seven attempts against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round. Dating back to K.C.’s Super Bowl run last season, the former Texas Tech standout has kept it himself at least six times in five straight playoff contests. Mahomes has 29 carries in four previous Super Bowl appearances, including nine against the Eagles two years ago.
PICK #4: Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+155)
Worthy’s regular-season numbers were as follows: 59 catches on 98 targets for 638 yards and 6 touchdowns. He may not have set the NFL world on fire, but those are solid statistics for a rookie. It’s also worth noting that Worthy scored a TD in his last two regular-season games and was close to being the first touchdown scorer in the Divisional Round against Houston but got tackled at the one-yard line before Kareem Hunt scored from there.
The Texas product then caught six of seven targets for 85 yards and a touchdown in the win over Buffalo. Mahomes has built a ton of confidence in Worthy, so it would be no surprise if that duo connected for another score in the Super Bowl.
PICK #5: Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-105)
Like Mahomes, Hurts is happy to do much of the work himself when the lights shine brightest. The former Alabama and Oklahoma star already has 4 rushing touchdowns through two postseason games, including 3 in the NFC Championship. He scored at least one rushing TD in all three playoff games during Philadelphia’s run two years ago, including three in the Super Bowl against Kansas City.
In the 2024 regular season, he scored on the ground a whopping 14 times. The tush push is pretty much unstoppable, and Hurts is an extremely mobile QB who can go the distance from anywhere on the field, so it’s not like the push is the only way he can get into the end zone. There is no need to overthink this play; Hurts at close to even money to score a rushing touchdown on Sunday is a steal.
