The UFC returns to New York this weekend with the UFC 309 pay-per-view event going down at the legendary Madison Square Garden. The card features a highly-anticipated heavyweight title headliner as current champion Jon Jones looks for his first title defense when he faces former heavyweight king Stipe Miocic. The co-main event is a massive lightweight rematch featuring former champion Charles Oliveira and Michael Chandler.
With plenty of other great fights on what is a stacked card, let’s take a look at all of the action.
UFC 309 Prelim Card
The action kicks off with a women's flyweight bout between Veronica Hardy and Eduarda Moura. Hardy, the wife of former UFC fighter Dan Hardy that will be in the corner, should come out on top in this encounter.
Bassil Hafez meets Oban Elliott in a welterweight collision. Elliot is a solid betting favorite and is likely to emerge the victor.
Mickey Gall returns to action when he faces Ramiz Brahimaj in a welterweight clash. Gall is favored to win in this bout.
Marcin Tybura takes on Jhonata Diniz in a heavyweight encounter. Although Diniz is undefeated, Tybura is just about expected to come out on top.
Lightweights are also in action as David Onama battles Roberto Romero. Onama is a heavy favorite and should get the victory.
Lightweight veteran Jim Miller continues to go strong as he takes on Damon Jackson. That said, Miller is an underdog in this one but I see the 41-year-old New Jersey native getting another win.
Former middleweight champion Chris Weidman returns to action when he faces Eryk Anders. A bit odd to have the All-American on the prelims, but his time in the cage is near the end. This should be a competitive and close affair, but Anders is just about favored to eek out the win. Again, I like a slight upset here as Weidman has the grappling skills and heart to gut out a win.
The featured prelim sees two American fighters in Jonathan Martinez and Marcus McGhee. This is another competitive fight that should see McGhee likely earn the win on the scorecards to propel him closer to a top 10 ranking.
UFC 309 Main Card
Ruffy (10-1) vs Llontop (14-4)
The main card opens up with a lightweight tilt between Mauricio Ruffy and James Llontop. Ruffy only has one UFC fight under his belt, but it was a first-round TKO win over Jamie Mullarkey. Overall, he has won his last five fights in a row as well. Llontop, meanwhile, has lost both his fights in the UFC.
He was submitted by Chris Padilla in April before losing a split decision to Viacheslav Borshchev in August. It is likely to be three defeats in a row as Ruffy is a solid favorite to get his hand raised.
Araujo (12-6) vs Silva (18-4)
The only women’s fight on the night is a flyweight encounter between Viviane Araujo and Karine Silva. Arauja has had a rocky few performances with four defeats in her last six overall. She most recently was outpointed by Natalia Silva in February earlier this year.
Silva, on the other hand, has won her last nine fights in a row and is 3-0 in the UFC. Her notable wins include Poliana Botelho, Ketlen Souza, Maryna Moroz and most recently, Ariane Lipski. It’s hard to see her not come out on top again in this Brazilian versus Brazlilian matchup.
Nickal (6-0) vs Craig (17-8-1)
Bo Nickal takes a serious step up in competition when he faces former light heavyweight Paul Craig in a 185-pound contest. Nickal remains undefeated and is 3-0 in the UFC. While his wins under the promotion’s banner have been impressive, his last victory at UFC 300 against Cody Brundage earlier this year wasn't the most memorable one.
He’ll be looking to rebound with an impressive performance against Craig, who is looking to return to the win column. The Scotsman enjoyed a TKO win over Andre Muniz in his middleweight debut, but has since been finished by Brendan Allen and Caio Borralho.
He’s a real submission threat on the ground, but will likely struggle to take Nickal down there and also lacks in the striking department. Therefore, this should be a comfortable Nickal win who is the biggest favorite on the night.
Oliveira (34-10, 1NC) vs Chandler (23-8)
In the co-main event, we have an exciting lightweight rematch between former champion Charles Oliveira and the always exciting Michael Chandler. If you haven’t seen the first bout, go back and do that now.
The Brazilian was originally supposed to fight Islam Makhachev in a rematch for the title last year; however, a cut saw him ruled out of the fight leading him to instead fight Armin Tsarukyan at UFC 300. Although it was a close fight where Oliveira had his moments, in the end, Tsarukyan did enough to get the nod. Do Bronx requires a big win against Chandler in order to get another title shot.
Oliveira, of course, became lightweight champion following his knockout of Chandler back in 2021. He would go on to defend the title in fights against Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje before losing to Makhachev. Chandler, meanwhile, fought Gaethje after Oliveira and lost in a back-and-forth classic.
He rebounded against Tony Ferguson with a vicious upkick knockout before getting submitted by Poirier in November 2022. He hasn’t fought since, as his chase for a Conor McGregor fight never came to fruition and so, he’s fighting Oliveira again.
That inactivity along with being three years older than Oliveira at the age of 38 will likely play a factor. While he is eager for revenge, it’s hard to look past “Do Bronx” in this one who is a heavy favorite. I see this one as a pick-em, and with the American wrestler being the dog, I like a play on the dog.
Jones (27-1, 1NC) vs Miocic (20-4)
In the main event, Jon Jones makes his long-awaited return from injury when he defends the heavyweight title against former champion Stipe Miocic. While this fight might have been the biggest fight to be made 5-10 years ago, it is still a big throwback matchup that will enter into the conversation for the best fighters of all time.
Jones, of course, won the heavyweight title in March 2023 when he finally made his heavyweight debut and submitted Cyril Gane in the first round of their vacant title bout. While it was a massive moment for Jones, it was three years of build-up for just less than a round of action. And so, fans were left with more questions than answers following his debut. However, we are likely to get a much longer fight when Miocic faces him.
Miocic, meanwhile, has had an ever longer layoff than Jones. They were originally supposed to fight earlier this year, but an injury to Jones postponed the fight. Even still, Miocic hasn't fought since early 2021, when he got knocked out by Francis Ngannou in their rematch for a heavyweight title.
Add in the fact that he's now 42 years of age and it's easy to see why Jones is a big favorite. Bones has only had one fight since February 2020. But compared to Miocic, Jones has the height, length, size, youth, and likely grappling advantage.
As a huge favorite, it’s easy to see Jones defend his heavyweight title in what could potentially be his last fight in the UFC. However, at such long odds, a small play on the fire fighter could keep things a bit more exciting.
