The ATP Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships was once dominated by Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic but, with the Swiss maestro now retired and the super Serb opting not to participate in the 2024 tournament, it's Daniil Medvedev who tops the market in his bid for back-to-back titles.
Taking place at the Aviation Club since its inception, the Dubai Championships started as an ATP 250 Series event in 1993 and graduated to 500 Series status in 2001, when Juan Carlos Ferrero beat Marat Safin in an underwhelming final during which the Russian was forced to retire.
Federer won for the first time in 2003 and the Swiss would go on to mirror his Wimbledon record in Dubai by lifting the title on seven subsequent occasions, while Djokovic is a five-time champion, with his most recent victory coming in 2020 in one of the final events which took place prior to the first wave of the Covid pandemic.
The three most recent editions have been won by Russians - Aslan Karatsev, fresh off a shock run to the semi-finals of the Australian Open, defeated Lloyd Harris to win the 2021 tournament, Andrey Rublev won the title in 2022, then he was beaten in the 2023 final by his good friend Medvedev.
Djokovic played in the tournament in both 2022 and 2023 but, with Indian Wells and Miami on his radar for the first time since 2019, the Serb is one of several ATP Tour stars who are skipping the event to prepare for the Sunshine Double.
Australian Open hero Jannik Sinner is also absent, while Carlos Alcaraz suffered an ankle injury at the Rio Open, although this tournament was never on his schedule.
As a result, fourth-ranked Medvedev is the highest-ranked player in the field ahead of Rublev (fifth) and world number eight Hubert Hurkacz.
- Daniil Medvedev to win
- Borna Coric to win & each-way
Medvedev For Dubai Double
Women's Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka was caught cold in the WTA Dubai event on her return to competitive action last week, losing out to Donna Vekic in the second round at the Aviation Club, but men's runner-up Medvedev looks unlikely to suffer the same fate.
The 28-year-old Muscovite has been an ATP top-five regular in recent seasons and is currently ranked fourth with some distance in terms of ranking points back to Rublev in fifth.
While one Grand Slam title - the 2021 US Open where he thwarted Djokovic's attempt to win the calendar Slam - is a disappointing return for Medvedev, he once again demonstrated his capabilities in Melbourne despite ultimately suffering heartache at the hands of Sinner.
Medvedev found himself two sets up in the final but, having spent a record-breaking 24 hours on the court throughout the tournament, it was perhaps no surprise that he ran out of steam and opened the door for his fresher Italian opponent to turn the tide.
With Djokovic likely to come again, Alcaraz's blip expected only to be temporary and Sinner simply awesome over the last few months, Medvedev faces a tough ask in adding to his sole Grand Slam win but he should still continue to accumulate 500 Series tournaments with regularity, starting in Dubai this week.
Medvedev, a 20-time ATP World Tour champion, including four titles at 500 Series level and, more impressively, six Masters 1000 titles - including last season's Miami Open - will be determined to prove himself after the Australian Open final.
His preparation for last year's Dubai Championships was markedly different as Medvedev bounced back from a third-round Australian Open defeat with titles in Rotterdam and Doha before heading to Dubai and winning for a third consecutive week.
However, he's taken the sensible decision to rest physically and mentally in the wake of his draining Australian Open run and that contrasting approach could still see the same result in next Saturday's final.
Top-class rivals are thin on the ground. Rublev obviously has an excellent record in Dubai having reached the final in each of the last two seasons, but the 26-year-old lost out to Jakub Mensik in the quarter-finals in Qatar last week, while Hurkacz was beaten in Rotterdam last time out by Dutchman Tallon Griekspoor.
The towering Pole is arguably playing better than ever and he's shown flickers in this tournament in recent seasons, losing out to eventual champion Rublev in 2022 and then bumping into Djokovic at the quarter-final stage a year ago.
However, provided Medvedev is fit and firing after almost a month off, this appears to be an excellent chance for the defending champion to bounce back from one of the toughest losses of his career.
Coric Capable Of A Surprise
For an each-way alternative, punters should consider a bet on Borna Coric, who has proven himself well equipped to handle conditions in Dubai and is the type of player who is capable of springing a surprise at big odds.
A former world number 12, Coric's career has been a tale of injury woes interfused with bright spots, most notably his triumph over Stefanos Tsitsipas in the final of the 2022 Cincinnati Masters, while he also reached the final of the Shanghai Masters in 2018, where he lost out to Djokovic.
The 27-year-old Croat was unfortunate to draw Frances Tiafoe in the opening round of the Australian Open, losing out to the American in four sets, then he reached the final of a Challenger Tour event in Belgium.
Coric returned to top-level action with a run to the Montpellier final, where he fell to a defeat against Alexander Bublik, then he bumped into the same rival in the first round in Rotterdam a week later.
The Zagreb native will hope for a kinder draw in Dubai, but he knows he has what it takes to perform at the Aviation Club having reached the semi-finals on two previous occasions, losing out each time to Federer.
Coric has claimed some significant scalps in the Middle East, including a win over Andy Murray in the 2015 tournament, and he could make an impact again should the draw fall in his favour.
