A Boxing Day tradition as storied as leftover sprouts and flat batteries, Kempton's card contains three Grade 1 races but the undoubted highlight is the King George VI Chase.
This is the second most celebrated championship staying chase after the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Many of the greats of the game have won this race, with multiple winners far more common than at Cheltenham in March. Six will go to post for this year's feature, including three of the highest-rated chasers in Britain and Ireland in what promises to be an exceptional renewal.
Clive Gildon provides his analysis on the big race as well as some other selections on day one of Kempton's two-day Christmas meeting. The card runs from 12.45 until 3.40, with the feature due off at 2.30.
2.30 - King George VI Chase (Grade 1, 3m)
The King George field is rarely big in numbers these days, but it still tends to bring out the best. It has delivered that in spades this year. However you slice it, the trio at the top of the betting are in the top half-dozen staying chasers in training.
Allaho is a dual winner of the Ryanair at the Cheltenham Festival. Shishkin has won a hatful of Grade 1s from 2m to 3m1f. And BRAVEMANSGAME won this race 12 months ago by 14 lengths before finishing second to Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
You might have expected such a stellar line-up to have headline writers breathless with anticipation. The reason that has not happened is because these three horses have all dented their reputation in recent times, to varying degrees.
Shishkin refused to race last time. That is the sort of behaviour punters take a long time to forgive. Allaho missed all of last season and was clearly a bit rusty on his return, for all he ran like he still retains much of his old ability.
Bravemansgame has twice lost to horses he would not have seen in his way last season. His most recent run, when well held by Royale Pagaille (second in last year's King George) in the Betfair Chase was clearly him well off his best.
You fancy, though, that Paul Nicholls has saved a little bit for Kempton. This race has always been seen as a perfect match for this horse, a view that was validated in some style 12 months ago. And when Paul Nicholls says a horse is made for Kempton, you should believe him. Bravemansgame last year was his 13th win in the King George.
If you want an alternative to the shaky trio at the top of the betting, the best option might be Hewick. He was hugely progressive last season, landing the American Grand National as well as the Galway Plate. Saved for the Gold Cup as he is said to be a top-of-the-ground horse, he led the field into the straight at Cheltenham. It was already starting to go wrong when he fell at the second-last fence, but even minor money in that race would make him the rightful fourth-best in this field. Every blob from the big three would take him one step closer to career-defining glory, and connections will be hopeful given Hewick has optimum conditions.
1.20 - Kauto Star Novices' Chase (Grade 1, 3m)
For many this race will centre on Il Est Francais and trying to figure out how good he is after some bloodless successes over fences in his native France.
The bad news is that even followers of French racing do not really know. Nothing has even tried to race Il Est Francais, and every one of his rivals here will put up more of a fight. The more positive reading of that assessment is that Il Est Francais has been priced up so defensively that he must be taken on.
HERMES ALLEN won a Grade 1 over hurdles, like Il Est Francais. He also left a really good impression when winning a Grade 2 on his debut over fences at Newbury earlier this month. His ability, and his trajectory given he is a well-built Paul Nicholls charge with a sound technique, is far easier to project than that of the favourite.
Another major talent in the field is Giovinco. He has form with Hermes Allen's stouter-staying stablemate, Stay Away Fay. That was in deep ground at Sandown, and Giovinco travelled all over the winner before being outstayed. At a sharper track, on quicker ground, he has Grade 1 claims.
12.45 - Novices' Handicap Chase (2m4½f)
As you might expect, Paul Nicholls has a strong hand in the novice chasing division this year. As well as Hermes Allen and Stay Away Fay, he has Ginny's Destiny who has climbed the ranks relentlessly at Cheltenham through the autumn and winter. He is Grade 2 standard now.
That makes it all the more impressive that ES PERFECTO finished second to him in November. Admittedly, he would have been third had Crebilly stood up, but that horse again gave Ginny's Destiny a fright in the rematch so it is clear the form is solid.
Es Perfecto has a chasing-centric pedigree and is expected to come on for the run at Cheltenham, which was his first run over fences and his first since May. There is a strong chance that Alan King has had this race in mind for him since.
You imagine the same is true of Idalko Bihoue. He showed clear benefit from his chasing debut, which was over before it had really begun, when winning at Cheltenham in October. Ginny's Destiny was among the beaten horses that day, which boosts the form. Idalko Bihoue might have tried a Graded novice chase after that, but connections have sensibly stuck to handicaps with an attractive mark of 135 to exploit.
1.55 - Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1, 2m)
A quick word on the third Grade 1 on the Kempton card. It is not the most appealing betting race, as champion hurdler CONSTITUTION HILL is prohibitively short. He will win, barring mishap, and most fans are just hoping he shows the sort of sparkle that puts him in arguably ahead of other modern hurdling greats like Istabraq and Faugheen.
Punters may want to consider a forecast, or a bet without the favourite, as the way to play this race. Consider veteran Sceau Royal if you do. He has not sparkled in two runs this year, and given his age it is reasonable that some will conclude he is on the way out. But even on form from earlier this year, he would be the best of the rest in this race and yet he can be backed at huge odds. He will not beat Constitution Hill if the latter stands up, but he may run well enough to reward creative punters.
