The third and final day of the July Festival at Newmarket looks a belter and there are five live races at the Cambridgeshire track to form a major part of ITV’s Super Saturday coverage.
Our expert, Clive Gildon, provides a selection and back-up play with analysis for all five races at Newmarket on the terrestrial broadcast, starting with the feature Group 1 July Cup as some of the best sprinters around lock horns on the July course.
4.35 - My Pension Expert July Cup Stakes (Group 1, 6f)
Three of the first four in the early July Cup market are three-year-olds and that is understandable given the older sprinters hardly set the highest of bars.
Inisherin has relished switching to sprinting since pulling too hard and failing to stay in the 2,000 Guineas, showcasing a good turn of foot when dropping to 6f in the Sandy Lane and again at Royal Ascot in the Commonwealth Cup.
He has the beating of last season’s leading juvenile sprinter, Vandeek, on Haydock form, although Vandeek was entitled to have needed his first run of the campaign against a race-fit rival and is not ruled out under James Doyle.
River Tiber has a squeak dropping back to sprinting, but Vandeek had his measure at two and he produced a poor enough effort in the Jersey Stakes three weeks ago.
While Mitbaahy also failed to get going at the royal meeting in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, there was a credible excuse as the ground was quicker than he likes.
That shouldn’t be the case at Newmarket and the last time this horse ran over 6f at Newmarket he fared best of those from off the pace in the Abernant Stakes in May.
If they go too hard, Mitbaahy will be ready to pick up the pieces and there was a lot to like about his last-to-fast Greenlands Stakes success at the Curragh two starts back. Charlie Hills can be trusted to eventually snare a Group 1 sprint out of Mitbaahy.
Selection: Mitbaahy
Next Best: Inisherin
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2.12 - Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap (7f)
Newmarket’s first offering on ITV is a competitive 7f fillies’ handicap for three-year-olds and there are a number to be interested in.
Lou Lou’s Gift heads the betting after a smooth victory over course and distance last month, but that five-runner affair looked weak by Newmarket standards and a 7lb rise demands more from her in this deeper contest.
Of greater appeal is Miss Bodacious for Karl Burke. Miss Bodacious bumped into subsequent Listed winner Pandora’s Gift when third at Southwell on her debut on New Year’s Day and built on that to force a dead-heat at Chelmsford.
Miss Bodacious returned from a 142-day break to capitalise on a decent-looking opening mark of 74 when scoring rampantly in a good time here a few a weeks ago, finishing in the manner of one who will be seen to better effect over an extra furlong.
She gets that here and can make light of a 9lb rise with the prospect of additional progress. Feared most is Arisaig, who comes into this more battle-hardened in handicaps and caught the eye in the Sandringham last time when struggling to get a clear run at things, eventually finishing eighth.
The way she travels suggests dropping back to 7f will be no worries for her.
Selection: Miss Bodacious
Next Best: Arisaig
2.50 - Mile Handicap (1m)
Another good three-year-old handicap follows and this mile contest can go the way of Volterra.
Progeny of Farhh are known for progressing with age, but Volterra still managed to win as a juvenile, bagging a Redcar novice in gritty fashion after shaping promisingly when fourth in York’s Convivial Maiden.
Volterra made the perfect start to his three-year-old career by landing a significant gamble in a Rowley Mile contest here in May, relishing an extra furlong and readily accounting for a filly who is now rated 15lbs higher.
The selection is himself rated 9lb higher and goes off the same mark as when winning his group of 10 in the Britannia last time. He was simply on the wrong side and his prominent racing style will suit the July course.
The Camden Colt is more exposed than many of these, but should give his running too, having produced his three best performances on Racing Post Ratings at this course.
Selection: Volterra
Next Best: The Camden Colt
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3.25 - Superlative Stakes (Group 2, 7f)
Godolphin’s unbeaten colt Ancient Truth looks short enough in the betting for the Superlative Stakes on this rise in class and Pentle Bay is preferred.
Pentle Bay was probably beaten by a superstar in Bedtime Story when going down by nine lengths in the Chesham on his previous outing, but still brushed aside everything else when the subject of decent pre-race support.
There is a chance this son of New Bay will be more at home on a slower surface and the experience he gained in the Chesham should stand to him for this assignment.
Line Of Force is two from two and should cope with this extra furlong after seeing out 6f strongly at Carlisle last time, so rates a fair alternative.
Selection: Pentle Bay
Next Best: Line Of Force
4.00 - Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap, 7f)
The Bunbury Cup is the big betting race of the day at Newmarket and Dark Thirty might be up to delivering Richard Hannon a third victory in this top handicap in the past five years.
Dark Thirty was third in his group of 10 in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, but that wasn’t the place to be. All the evidence suggests this horse is better suited to Newmarket, though, with course form figures of 312133 across the July course and Rowley Mile.
He should go forward from his wide draw in stall 19 for a race that has thrown up winners drawn high in the majority of its recent runnings.
If high draws aren’t favoured then Gorak (stall two) could be the answer from those in the single figures.
He also ran better than his finishing position suggested at the royal meeting, likes to go forward and possesses good course form for Charlie Fellowes, while he has slipped to a tempting mark.
Selection: Dark Thirty
Next Best: Gorak
