Ireland and France headed the betting at the start of the 2025 Six Nations campaign and reigning champions Ireland are in the driving seat as the teams prepare for a showdown in Dublin.
The Irish have won three out of three so far, while France dropped the ball with a one-point defeat to England at Twickenham, but Les Bleus bounced back from that loss with an 11-try demolition of Italy in round three.
England are still in the title mix and will be looking to France to do them a favour against Ireland before they take on Italy at home on Sunday, while there’s a fascinating contest between Scotland and Wales who are both looking to get something from a disappointing campaign.
- FRANCE TO BEAT IRELAND BY 1-12 POINTS
- WALES +16 ON HANDICAP V SCOTLAND
- OVER 7.5 TRIES IN ENGLAND V ITALY
All To Play For In Dublin
They’re calling it La Finale as France head to Dublin with their Six Nations title hopes on the line against champions Ireland.
Last year the teams met in the first round and Ireland pulled off a 38-17 upset in Marseille. Les Bleus were without two key players in Antoine Dupont and Romain Ntamack that day and in hindsight looked as if they weren’t ready for such a pivotal clash.
Both men line up on Saturday as fly-half Ntamack returns from suspension following a red card in round one while Dupont is coming off a man-of-the-performance against Italy.
As well as their two musketeers in the half-back pairing, France also have flying winger Damian Penaud back after he was dropped following the defeat to England, and there’s a wealth of attacking flair in the line-up.
However, that’s only half of the equation as France sides are renowned for their bulk and power and coach Fabien Galthie has again gone for six forwards on the bench, leaving no doubt that he will be looking first and foremost to win the battle up front.
Ireland’s line-out wobbled against Scotland and their scrum came under pressure in Wales, and the French forwards are sure to have looked at that and to target those areas.
So France could have an edge in the pack and in attack, but while Ireland haven’t been as emphatic or eye-catching in their performances this year, they have demonstrated that they are a team who can find a way to win.
They came under pressure in the first half against Wales and England but they worked out how to overcome that in both games. Even so, they look sure to be under much more pressure this time.
Ireland are narrow favourites on home soil but this has the look of a tight clash. Ireland have won the last two meetings by a double-figure margin but only one of the previous 12 Six Nations clashes was decided by more than 10 points and there have been two draws.
France look the value as slight underdogs, but the best bet may be to take a bigger price on a win for Les Bleus by no more than 12 points.
FRANCE TO WIN BY ONE TO 12 POINTS
Scots Lacking Ruthless Edge
Wales began a new era without Warren Gatland at the helm with a home defeat to Ireland, but there were enough positive signs in their performance to suggest the Red Dragons could finally be on the up as they seek to end their long losing run.
Stand-in coach Matt Sherratt steadied the ship by recalling experienced fly-half Gareth Anscombe and their scrum had Ireland under pressure as they went in at the break 13-10 in front.
They couldn’t hold on to that lead but they stayed well within a big 23-point handicap and they could make the best of a double-figure start at Murrayfield too.
Wales have always been a side who thrive on confidence, and while they are still 15 matches without a win, the Ireland performance should have given them enough belief that they can start to turn things around.
Sherratt has done his bit to help build some confidence by sticking with the same starting line-up from round three and he will be hoping the players can show the same drive to shut down a Scotland side who have so much potential in attack but have shown a lack of ruthlessness.
Against England two weeks ago Scotland had the majority of possession and territory, scored three tries to one, made more carries, gained more metres and made nine line breaks to two, yet still lost by a point.
Three missed conversions offers a simple explanation for the defeat, but Scotland were also guilty of failing to capitalise on clear scoring opportunities and they will need to be far more clinical if they are to cover a big handicap. The evidence of the first three rounds suggests they may struggle to achieve that.
WALES +16
England Attack To Take Shackles Off
England have come under fire for their lack of ambition and success in attack, but as several players have pointed out, they have at least won their last two games and a home clash with Italy, who are coming off an 11-try thrashing at home to France, offers the chance to loosen the shackles.
Head coach Steve Borthwick has made a bold move in moving Marcus Smith to the bench, leaving Fin Smith at fly-half to conduct England’s attacking play.
Marcus Smith produced some of England’s more creative moves against Scotland in round three but the dual-playmaker approach may have led to some confusion and unfamiliarity.
Also dropped from the line-up is Henry Slade and his replacement at centre is Fraser Dingwall, meaning there is an all-Northampton axis at nine, ten and 12 as Fin Smith again starts alongside scrum-half Alex Mitchell.
Italy have shown far more in attack over the last few years but the defeat to France showed some serious defensive shortcomings and they are given a handicap start of 21 points.
England haven’t beaten a tier-one team by more than 20 points since their 2022 Six Nations meeting with the Azzurri in Rome, which they won 33-0. However, they reached the 50-point mark in two meetings with Japan last year and if they can find some fluency with a reshaped attack, points should flow in good conditions and in front of an expectant crowd.
This could well turn into an open, high-scoring game and Italy may well have a say but England could well reach the bookmakers’ line of eight tries on their own
OVER 7.5 TRIES
