UFC 303 Betting Tips

UFC 303 Betting Tips


The UFC heads to Las Vegas, Nevada for International Fight Week with the UFC 303 pay-per-view event taking place at the T-Mobile Arena.

While the card was supposed to feature the long-awaited return of Conor McGregor against Michael Chandler, a broken pinky toe prevented “The Notorious” from headlining the card.  However, the light heavyweight champion steps in as Alex Pereira looks for his second title defense in a short-notice rematch against former champion Jiri Prochazka. The co-main event, meanwhile, is a pivotal featherweight encounter between former title challenger Brian Ortega and the rising star Diego Lopes.

With plenty of other great fights on what is a stacked card, let’s take a look at all of the action taking place this weekend.



UFC 3023 Prelim Card

Bantamweights kick off the action as Ricky Simon takes on Vinicius Oliveira. Despite the Brazilian’s impressive record, the American is a solid favorite in this matchup and already has impressive wins in the Octagon over the likes of Raphael Assouncao and Jack Shore.

Undefeated Japanese flyweight Rei Tsuruya battles Carlos Hernandez next. Expect Tsuruya to maintain his perfect record and improve to 10-0 over the American that las lost two out of three.

Former champion Andrei Arlovski collides with Martin Buday in a heavyweight fight. The younger Buday is favored to come out on top over the legend that is now 45 years old and on a three fight winning streak.

Michelle Waterson-Gomez battles Gillian Robertson in a nice women's strawweight matchup. Robertson is likely to emerge victorious with her superior grappling skills

Exciting rising star Payton Talbott battles Yanis Ghemmouri. Talbott is a massive favorite -- the biggest on the night -- and should get another finish in his young undefeated career.

Charles Jourdain takes on Jean Silva in a featherweight tilt. It should be extremely competitive, but the Canadian Jourdain is just about favored to edge this one.

Featherweight veterans Cub Swanson and Andre Fili meet on the card as well.  Two American fan favorites do battle in what is likely to be a slugfest.  “Killer Cub” has alternated wins and losses in his last 8 fights and is slated to lose this one. Fili is a solid favorite to eke out the victory, and might just be the last time we see Swanson in the cage.

The featured prelim sees Joe Pyfer take on Canada's Marc-Andre Barriault. Expect Pyfer to return to the win column with a potential knockout and get the hype he was riding before Jack Hermansson stopped in the last outing.



UFC 303 Main Card

Garry (14-0) vs Page (22-2)

The main card kicks off with a welterweight banger as undefeated Ian Garry takes on arguably his toughest challenge yet in former Bellator star Michael Page. Garry last competed in February when he earned a split decision win over Geoff Neal. That victory took him to 7-0 in the promotion as he is seemingly one big win away from entering title contention.

His next opponent will also be looking to enter title contention as Page looks to earn his sophomore win in the UFC. The Brit enjoyed a successful UFC debut after outpointing Kevin Holland over three rounds in March. Overall, Page has won eight of his last nine outings, and has shown his style is a tough matchup for anyone.

This should be a close contest that will take place entirely on the feet -- however, Garry is slightly favored to emerge as victorious, but “Venom” is a live dog here.



Bueno Silva (10-3-1, 1NC) vs Chiasson (10-3)

Silva takes on Chiasson in a women’s bantamweight encounter. Silva last competed in January when she was outpointed by Raquel Pennington in their vacant title matchup. Prior to that, Silva was undefeated in four, including a submission win over former champion Holly Holm which was later overturned to a no contest after she tested positive for a banned substance.

Chiasson, meanwhile, will be looking to earn her second win in a row. She returned to bantamweight with a submission triumph over Pannie Kianzad in March and has won four of her last six fights overall. The oddsmakers have it as a pick ‘em as it can literally go either way.  I like the #3 ranked Brazilian contender in this matchup.

Smith (38-19) vs Dolidze (12-3)

What was originally supposed to be a light heavyweight encounter between Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree has been shaken up multiple times into a short-notice battle between former title challenger Anthony Smith and Roman Dolidze. Smith last earned a submission victory over Vitor Petrino in May and is sitting at the #10 contender in the division. However, he hasn't been on a winning streak since 2021 with three losses in his last five outings.

Dolidze, on the other hand, is looking to snap his losing streak. Having previously won four in a row, the Georgian is on a two-fight losing streak after getting outpointed by Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov. The good news is Smith is a good matchup for him with Dolidze being a slight favorite to return to winning ways on Saturday night.



Ortega (24-3) vs Lopes (18-3, 1NC)

Another short-notice matchup on this card is the new co-main event featuring a featherweight battle between Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes in what is essentially a title eliminator. Ortega recently snapped a two-fight losing streak after defeating Yair Rodriguez in their rematch with a submission victory back in February. He is now in pole position to receive a third title shot should he win his next matchup.

It won’t be easy as he is facing a fellow unpredictable fighter with a submission game in Diego Lopes. Losing a competitive decision in his short-notice UFC debut against Movsar Evloev, the Brazilian has rebounded with three straight victories and three straight finishes. The most impressive was undoubtedly his first-round KO win over Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300 back in April.

Perhaps the most impressive victory is coming Saturday as Lopes is surprisingly a slight betting favorite over Ortega that might not have been quite ready to jump back into the Octagon on such short notice. A big win could fast track the #14 ranked Brazilian could jump him into title talks if he can take out the #3 ranked featherweight Saturday night.



Pereira (10-2) vs Prochazka (12-1, 1NC)

Although UFC 303 was built around the return of Conor McGregor and his matchup against Michael Chandler, the headliner has ended up with this high-level rematch. Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka run things back to add star-power to the card.

Their first meeting took place for the vacant title in November last year as Pereira earned the second-round knockout victory to become a two-weight champion in the UFC. There was some controversy as many felt it was an early stoppage. All question marks will hopefully be erased the second time around with both men earning big wins since.

Pereira successfully defended his light heavyweight crown with a first-round knockout victory over Jamahal Hill in the main event of UFC 300 in April, which was seen as real “light work”. Prochazka also competed on the same card as he delivered a vicious second-round knockout on Aleksandar Rakic.

All that said, the oddsmakers are still siding with Pereira as he remains a favorite to defend.  The power of the Brazilian gives him the ability to end the fight at any time with one punch. Prochazka is a wild man, and should not be counted out with his unorthodoxed striking and aggressive style.  I think the safe play is with the champ that seems to be gaining even more confidence with each bout.


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