UFC 313 Betting Tips - Pereira vs Magomed

UFC 313 Betting Tips - Pereira vs Magomed


The UFC returns to Las Vegas this weekend with the UFC 313 pay-per-view event taking place at the T-Mobile Arena. The card features a light heavyweight title fight as current champion Alex Pereira faces the red-hot Magomed Ankalaev.

The co-main event, meanwhile, is a lightweight contender rematch between Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev.  With plenty of other exciting matchups, let’s take a look at all of the action.



UFC 313 Prelim Card

Middleweights kick off the night as Djorden Santos takes on Ozzy Diaz. This should be a competitive matchup with the Brazilian edging the contest and giving the American his first loss.

Chris Gutierrez takes on John Castaneda in a featherweight tilt. This is another close fight but oddsmakers are giving “El Guapo” a slight edge.

More featherweights collide when Mairon Santos battles Francis Marshall. Santos is a major favorite and should earn the victory in this matchup.

Alex Morono clashes with Carlos Leal in a welterweight bout. Leal is the biggest favorite on the night and is very likely to earn a dominant win.



Brunno Ferreira takes on Armen Petrosyan in a middleweight clash. The Armenian Petrosyan takes on the “The Hulk” that makes his move down to the division.  This should be an explosive match-up ending in a finish.

Flyweights are also in action as Joshua Van fights Rei Tsuruya. “The Fearless” Van is favored to get the win and inflict the Japanese fighter’s first professional defeat.

Heavyweight veteran Curtis Blaydes battles Rizvan Kuniev in the featured prelim. Blaydes is a solid favorite and should get back to winning ways following his defeat to Tom Aspinall.  A big step down for the American wrestler that went from headlining UFC 304 to the prelims.


 

UFC 313 Main Card

Green (32-16, 1NC) vs Ruffy (11-1)

The main card opens with a lightweight matchup between King Green and the red-hot Mauricio Ruffy. Green last competed in July last year when he was submitted by Paddy Pimblett in the first round. Prior to that, he was enjoying a career resurgence with three wins in four including finishes over Tony Ferguson and Grant Dawson.

Ruffy, meanwhile, is coming off a unanimous decision win over James Llontop in November. Prior to that, he TKO'd Jaime Mullarkey in his UFC debut in May. Overall, the Brazilian is on a six-fight winning streak.It’s hard to see Ruffy not make it seven in a row as while Green still remains a dangerous fight for anyone despite his age, Ruffy is the younger, quicker and more explosive fighter who should earn the biggest win of his career thus far.



Lemos (14-4-1) vs Lucindo (17-5)

Former women’s strawweight title contender Amanda Lemos takes on Iasmin Lucindo. Lemos was last submitted by Virna Jandiroba in July last year. Prior to that, the Brazilian outpointed Mackenzie Dern to bounce back from her decision defeat to Weili Zhang in their 2023 title fight. Overall, Lemos has won three of her last five fights and comes in as the #5 ranked contender.

Iasmin Lucindo will be looking to add the fellow Brazliain to her impressive resume. The 23-year-old is currently on a four-fight win streak, having outpointed Marina Rodriguez at UFC 307 back in October. Her streak also saw her defeat the likes of Polyana Viana and former title challenger Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Overall, Lucindo is 4-1 in the UFC.

This should be a competitive affair likely to last all three rounds, but oddsmakers believe Lucindo has just enough in the tank to eek out the victory. 



Turner (14-8) vs Bahamondes (16-5)

Jalin Turner returns to action when he faces Ignacio Bahamondes in a lightweight tilt. The American Turner last competed in April last year when he was TKO'd by Renato Moicano at UFC 300. Prior to that, he did earn a knockout win over King Green, but that was after suffering split decision defeats to Mateusz Gamrot and Dan Hooker.

Bahamondes, on the other hand, is on a two-fight winning streak that saw him knockout Christos Giagos and most recently, Manuel Torres at UFC 306 in September. Overall, the Chilean has won five of his last six fights in the UFC.

Expect an entertaining one in this pick em.



Gaethje (25-5) vs Fiziev (12-3)

The co-main event features a lightweight rematch between former BMF champion Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev. The pair first fought in March two years ago in a Fight of the Night that saw Gaethje earn the majority decision victory over Fiziev. However, some believe despite the damage Fiziev took, he had a case for winning the fight. Gaethje would follow up that win with a knockout victory over Dustin Poirier before getting knocked out himself by Max Holloway in their BMF title fight at UFC 300 in April last year. Overall, “The Highlight” is 3-3 in his last six fights.

Fiziev would only compete once after the first Gaethje fight and that's because he suffered a knee injury in his fight against Mateusz Gamrot in September 2023. Prior to those setbacks, “Ataman” was on a six-fight winning streak and will be looking to return to the win column with a bang.

Interestingly enough, oddsmakers have Fiziev as the favorite despite the fact that he’s stepping in on short notice for the injured Dan Hooker. This could be due to how their first fight played out, but more so because Gaethje is coming off a brutal knockout victory. Could his chin possibly be cracked and if not, could Fiziev crack it?  Both fighters have the power to end the fight at any time, I’m not convinced this will see the final bell.



Pereira (12-2) vs Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1NC)

The main event features arguably the biggest light heavyweight title fight in some time as current champion Alex Pereira looks for his fourth title defense against Magomed Ankalaev. Pereira last competed in October when he TKO'd Khalil Rountree in the fourth round of their championship fight. It continued his finish streak with the Brazilian having previously knocked out Jamahal Hill and Jiri Prochazka. Overall, "Poatan" remains undefeated at 205 with a 5-0 record, but this could be his biggest test.

Ankalaev is on a two-fight winning streak following victories over Johnny Walker and Aleksandar Rakic. The Russian fighter is also undefeated in his last 13 fights with a draw against Jan Blachowicz in their vacant title fight in late 2022 halting his winning streak. Overall, Ankalaev is an impressive 11-1-1 with one no contest in his UFC career so far.  One would expect Ankalaev to be a heavy favorite given his wrestling ability and Pereira’s lack of grappling experience. However, Pereira remains a slight favorite during fight week.

While Pereira has shown that he can be taken down, he is still yet to be finished on the ground in the UFC. He has improved his grappling rapidly since his UFC debut in 2021 and usually does well to get back to his feet. Ankalaev however does not have a wrestling-heavy offense. In fact, he uses his wrestling to mix things up if needed as the 32-year-old is well-rounded and more than comfortable just striking during a fight.

The challenger has also promised to not wrestle with Pereira as he believes he can knock him out. This could be mind games, but Ankalaev standing dramatically increases Pereira’s chances of landing a left hook KO shot.  I like the momentum and growing confidence of the champion, and I like another stoppage for the Brazilian to retain his belt.


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