Value betting is a phrase you are likely to encounter a lot in the sports betting world. The concept of value betting is simple: it involves looking for betting opportunities where you believe the odds are undervalued and you believe the chances of something happening are actually better than the odds suggest. In this guide to value betting by Gambling Zone, we are going to take a look at different types of value bets, how to spot them, and how and when you should take advantage of them.
What is Value Betting in Sports?
Value betting is a really popular approach to sports betting. It is when a bet has a better percentage of return than the expected risk. To fully grasp value betting, you must understand the relationship between probability and odds. The probability of something happening is what is assessed to determine the odds. Value bets present themselves when the bookies have undervalued a selection when the odds are not a real reflection of the probability of something happening.
Types Of Value Bets
Let’s look at some of the most popular types of value bets you should be keeping your eyes open for when looking through the odds.
The Favourites Bets
Value betting on favourites is one of the preferred strategies of most bettors. This is when you believe the bookie has undervalued the favourite and that they actually have a better chance of winning than what their price suggests.
Underdog Bets
Naturally, underdogs are where a lot of bettors go to look for value bets. In a lot of cases, underdogs are undervalued. However, this doesn’t mean that they are the favourite, but rather that the probability of them winning is higher than what they have been priced at.
Tie Bets
Tie or draw value bets are when you believe the price of a draw is being undervalued. Draws are often risky markets to bet on, so they should always be approached with caution. Once again, like underdog betting, this doesn’t mean that a draw is the favoured outcome, just that it is being undervalued at its current price.
Underdog Bets With Asian Handicap
Asian handicap bets are often an excellent place to find value. This is when the Asian handicap market is being undervalued and may present great odds of betting on either the favourite or the underdog with a handicap.
What is Expected Value (EV)? Guide
To be able to utilise value betting as a system, you need to understand the concept of expected value. Expected value (EV) is a mathematical model used to work out the profit or loss of a bet based on all outcomes.
There are three types of EV: positive, zero, and negative. Positive EV is when the bet has a higher probability of winning than its odds suggest, zero EV is when the price is valued correctly, and negative EV is when it is undervalued.
So, how do you work this out? To calculate an EV, you need to multiply the probability of something amount by the amount of the potential payout. The easiest example to follow is a coin flip. In a fairly priced market, a coin flip should be at 1/1, however, if a bookie offered 11/10 on heads, this would be a value bet.
Sports Matches
Tips on Finding Value Bets
Now we know what expected value is and how to calculate it, we need to take a look at the best ways to find value bets.
Place You Own Odds
One of the most popular strategies for value betting is to set your own odds. To do this, you will need to assess all of the information that is available to you and determine the odds of an outcome. You can then compare this to the bookies and see if there is any value to be had.
Probabilities
To be successful at value betting, you need to train yourself to think in probabilities and likelihood, and not odds. You are looking for underpriced odds on the market, so you need to stop thinking in a traditional way about betting.
Evaluating
The most successful bettors are the ones that can remove emotion and operate solely through logic. Being able to mathematically determine odds and analyse data is hugely important, and it will help you spot value bets much easier.
Specialise
One of the best ways to find value bets is to specialise in niche betting markets. In these instances, punters are likely to be as well versed in the sport as the bookmaker, and they are more likely to find value. A bookmaker is also a lot less likely to undervalue a mainstream market, meaning there is less value to be found in those.
Difference Between Value Bet & Matched Bet
Value betting and match betting are very different. In value betting, punters are looking for underpriced odds. Matched betting, on the other hand, is a system that uses bookmakers' bonuses and promotions against them. Bettors sign up with multiple bookies and will often use lay-betting to make sure they cover all eventualities, ensuring an outcome.
