First and foremost, Wimbledon sure isn’t Roland Garros. On the women’s side, the French Open has not been a fair fight in recent years. World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is simply too good on clay. On the grass courts of the All-England Club, however, the story is much different. It is Swiatek’s worst surface, whereas big hitters like Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina become especially dangerous.
Not too surprisingly, the last seven editions of the tournament have produced seven different champions – including Rybakina in 2022 and Marketa Vondrousova in 2023. Ons Jabeur finished runner-up on both of those occasions. Let's take a look at the best bets to be made on the women’s side at Wimbledon before play gets underway on Monday.
- ARYNA SABALENKA
- ONS JABEUR
- JESSICA PEGULA
- DANIELLE COLLINS
- JELENA OSTAPENKO
Grass Gives Sabalenka The Edge
Wimbledon should set up very well for Sabalenka. Being the No. 3 seed instead of No. 2 (recently passed by Coco Gauff in the rankings) isn’t ideal because it means she could face Swiatek in the semifinals, but it also means that she will be on the opposite side of the draw from Rybakina – who is the No. 4 seed. Given Rybakina’s grass-court prowess, that’s good news for Sabalenka. And if the Belarusian does run into Swiatek in either the semis or the final, grass gives her a great shot.
It makes Sabalenka’s big-hitting game incredibly hard to deal with, while it’s definitely Swiatek’s worst surface. Moreover, Sabalenka has been in stellar form this season. She won a second consecutive Australian Open and finished runner-up to Swiatek twice on clay (Stuttgart and Rome) before reaching the quarters at Roland Garros. A two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, Sabalenka has all the tools to go all the way this year.
ARYNA SABALENKA TO WIN WIMBLEDON
Jabeur’s Time Could Be Now
Jabeur has reached the Wimbledon final in each of the past two seasons. The Tunisian came up short against Rybakina in 2022 before missing out on a golden opportunity against Vondrousova in 2023. It should also be noted that Jabeur advanced to the quarters in 2021, so she is an amazing 16-3 in her last 19 matches at the All-England Club.
It is true that the world No. 10 has not been at her best this season, coming in with a 14-12 record. However, she picked up momentum with a quarterfinal performance at the French Open (lost to Gauff in 3 sets) -- so she continues to save her best tennis for the biggest stages. Don’t be surprised if Jabeur continues to work her magic on the grass courts of Wimbledon.
Pegula Primed With Berlin Title
Pegula missed the entire European clay-court swing due to injury, so she may be off the radar of casual tennis fans these days. She should not be forgotten, however. The fifth-ranked American’s grass-court warmup for Wimbledon featured a title last week in Berlin, where she defeated the likes of Gauff, Donna Vekic and Anna Kalinskaya.
Although Pegula has never won a Grand Slam title, she is a consistent force at the biggest tournaments in the sport. The 30-year-old has reached the quarterfinal stage on six occasions, all in the last four seasons (including five in the last three seasons). With no dominant force along the lines of Swiatek at Roland Garros, Pegula may be able to walk through a relatively open door.
JESSICA PEGULA TO WIN WIMBLEDON
Collins’ Farewell Could Be In Victory
Collins announced at the Australian Open in January that this will be the last season of her career. If true, she is going out with a bang. The 30-year-old captured back-to-back titles this spring in Miami (hard courts) and Charleston (clay) to go along with a semifinal run in Rome. Grass is the final surface for Collins to conquer in 2024 and she just might do it at Wimbledon. Although her results in London have never impressed, she has never been this good of a player.
Her success on multiple different surfaces proves her versatility, and her flat, powerful strokes should actually work better on grass than they do on clay. Up to No. 11 in the rankings, Collins has positioned herself to get a favorable draw in which she will avoid anyone in the top four at least until the quarterfinals.
DANIELLE COLLINS TO WIN WIMBLEDON
Ostapenko Always A Longshot
Ostapenko is always someone you want to back at long odds, but she is pretty much never someone you want to bet on as a favorite. That is the nature of her high-risk, high-reward game; she can lose to anyone on any given day but also beat any opponent at any time. Case in point: the Latvian won the French Open in 2017 and she upset Swiatek at the 2023 U.S. Open. In addition to her Roland Garros triumph, she has reached at least the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam on four other occasions.
While Paris is the scene of her greatest triumph, Wimbledon has actually been Ostapenko’s most consistent major. The world No. 13 advanced to the quarterfinals in 2017, the semis in 2018 and the fourth round in 2022. Standout results this year included titles in Adelaide and Linz plus a quarterfinal showing in Rome. It’s a longshot, but – again – these are the situations in which Ostapenko generally thrives. She is well worth a look on the Wimbledon futures market.
JELENA OSTAPENKO TO WIN WIMBLEDON
